Financial analysts are cautioning against prematurely assuming the worst of the Middle East conflict is over, describing the current situation as akin to the “Rumsfeld ‘unknown knowns’ matrix.” RBC Capital Markets analysts specifically warned of a “clear and present risk of energy attacks” from Iranian-backed militias operating near Iraqi energy facilities. This outlook comes as the International Monetary Fund’s chief, Kristalina Georgieva, warns that US strikes on Iran could significantly damage global growth due to potential oil price surges.
The immediate trigger for these concerns is the Iranian parliament’s recent vote to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for a fifth of the world’s oil consumption, in retaliation for a US attack. This threat could trigger a severe oil supply shock, leading to heightened energy prices, increased inflation, and a slowdown in global economic activity, creating widespread economic ripple effects.
Oil prices initially reacted with a jump of over 5% on Sunday, hitting a five-month high of $81.40. However, prices later retreated, with Brent crude falling nearly 1% to just over $76 a barrel on Monday. Despite this, the potential for dramatic increases remains, with Goldman Sachs estimating oil could hit $110 a barrel if Hormuz flows are substantially reduced for an extended period.
Against this backdrop, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called any closure of the strait “economic suicide” for Iran and has urged China to use its influence, given its heavy reliance on the waterway. The reported U-turn of two supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz further illustrates the immediate impact of heightened tensions on maritime operations, underscoring the ongoing volatility and the need for vigilance.