President Vladimir Putin has started a one-year clock for the United States, announcing that Russia will unilaterally abide by the expired New START treaty’s nuclear limits but only if Washington does the same. This move places the future of global arms control squarely on the U.S. response, creating a period of tense observation.
In televised remarks, Putin characterized the decision as a necessary step to ensure “predictability and restraint” during a “turbulent period.” Russia will voluntarily cap its deployed nuclear arsenal at 1,550 warheads and its deployed missiles and bombers at 700, the same levels mandated by the treaty that was a bedrock of strategic stability for over a decade.
The conditionality of the offer was its most striking feature. Putin emphasized that Russia’s commitment is not absolute. He directly linked its viability to the United States refraining from any actions that could destabilize the current nuclear balance. This sets up a direct challenge to the Biden administration’s strategic policy.
Putin also presented a potential reward for American cooperation. He suggested that mutual restraint could be a significant factor in creating an atmosphere “conducive to substantive strategic dialogue.” This holds out the prospect of renewed talks on arms control and other bilateral issues, something that has been absent amid deep-seated distrust.
With this announcement, the post-New START era begins not with an arms race, but with a waiting game. Russia has made its move, and for the next year, its policy of self-restraint will be a barometer of U.S. intentions, with Moscow reserving the right to change course based on its analysis of the situation.