Vietnam is poised for a boost in rice export value in the latter part of 2026 as international rice prices exhibit signs of recovery and demand surges in key global markets. By mid-August, the nation had shipped approximately 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with expectations to reach around 7.7 million tonnes by year-end. Despite a dip in export earnings to an estimated $3.9 billion, which marks a 4% decrease from the previous year due to subdued prices earlier in 2026, the recent uptick in prices since July—up 5.8% from the same time last year—offers a glimmer of hope for better returns.
Factors such as a projected global deficit in rice supply and demand for the 2026-27 crop year, coupled with a potential record in global trade, could further boost Vietnam’s rice exports. Moreover, apprehensions about a strong El Niño could drive countries to bolster their food reserves, creating more opportunities for Vietnamese exporters. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice importer, is set to maintain its import levels to strengthen its stockpiles, planning to bring in about 5.6 million tonnes during the 2026-27 period. China, too, is ramping up its rice imports, particularly for broken rice used in animal feed, presenting another lucrative market for Vietnam.
Additional growth opportunities are emerging in other regions as well. Nigeria might experience a considerable rice supply shortfall, while Kenya is temporarily lifting import duties on white rice under a quota system. Vietnamese premium rice varieties, especially those with high-quality and low-emission certifications, are reportedly fetching over $1,000 per tonne in markets like Japan, the European Union, and Australia, signifying promising prospects in these high-end markets.
However, challenges loom on the horizon for Vietnam’s rice sector. The Philippines is contemplating imposing additional safeguard duties on rice imports, potentially raising the combined tariff above 35% and impacting Vietnamese exports to this crucial market. Indonesia is unlikely to import rice this year due to robust domestic production and ample reserves. Furthermore, Vietnamese rice is facing stiff price competition from India and Pakistan in various African markets, while Thailand and Cambodia are expanding their influence in China with fragrant rice varieties.
Compounding these issues are rising costs for fertilizer, transportation, and energy, which put financial pressure on farmers and exporters alike. The anticipated El Niño event, which could result in drought and saltwater intrusion from late 2026 to early 2027, poses an additional risk to the forthcoming winter-spring rice crop. While the outlook for Vietnam’s rice exports is optimistic with recovering prices and heightened demand, the industry must navigate these significant challenges to fully capitalize on the potential market opportunities.